Convention for using Worst-Case, Average-Case or Amortized Analysis? - algorithm

I understand the mechanics of carrying out different cases of complexity analysis for algorithms, but have been given a few scenarios and have been asked which type of analysis I would use for each case.
The types of analysis are "worst-case", "average-case", "amortized".
Surely to ensure that algorithms are as efficient as possible, we would always choose to use "worst-case"?
I realise this is subjective, but surely there are merits to using each of the analysis methods?
These are 4 scenarios I was given in a recent job interview an could not decide any of them apart from the one about the pilot.
A company has invented a new web search engine and wishes to analyse how quickly how quickly it returns results for a set of common search queries.
A pilot is flying a plane and his inputs on the control stick are converted into wing surface ovements by calculations made in software. The stability of the plane depends on fast responses; we want to analyse if the plane is safe.
A database is sorted the first time a query is made, if previously unsorted. We want to analyse how long a number of consecutive queries would take to perform using this database system.
A cloud computing company hosting an algorithm for weather forecasting and needs to guarantee to compute the next national daily forecast from pressure and other observations data in under 4 hours.

For real-time systems you need worst-case complexity; that covers your plane safety and guaranteed national forecast.
There are many application where you may want amortized and average case analysis (provided that you know "average case" distribution) or even smoothed analysis alongside with the worst-case. There are systems where the choice of the "best" algorithm depends on whether you talk about "worst" or "average", and sometimes they run multiple algorithms in parallel and whichever finishes faster aborts the other ones and outputs.

The requirements on the operation of the software dictate what characteristics of an algorithm you need to look at. In other words, there is no general answer. What you call "subjective" is rather "it depends on the circumstances".

Related

Algorithm Perfection Vs Time Analysis : Does Time complexity matters everytime?

I have a very basic and general doubt related to algorithm design. I've learnt basic algorithm and now learning randomized algorithm. Everywhere I observed that a professor mostly focuses on designing the algorithm that will ultimately try to reduces the complexity.
The usual way(What I observed) is to learn some basic(or an older) algorithm which behaves badly in terms of complexity and so the objective is to modify that older one with a newer algorithm which should focus on reducing the complexity, without affecting the output.
But in most of algorithm I've studied, especially distributed algorithms (in distributed operating systems) such as algorithms for distributed mutual exclusion, distributed deadlock detection etc., what I observed is that(and mostly I think that) the design of the algorithm should not focus only on complexity enhancement but it should focus on the perfection of the algorithm as well.
Lets take an example of distributed mutual exclusion algorithm. The very basic algorithm is a Lamport's algorithm and the modified version(by enhancing the complexity) of it is the Ricart-Agarwala algorithm. Since in distributed environment the communication is mostly by means of message passing, for distributed mutual exclusion we have three kinds of messages : a) Request critical resource b) Reply the request c) Release critical resource. The basic algorithm uses extra release messages(to inform all sites that the my site has released the critical resource, so you can enter). But in the advanced version what they did is they discarded these release messages by accommodating it in reply messages. And so they came up with some reduced complexity solution.
But when I tried the implementation of these algorithms in java, I observed that even if the complexity of basic algorithm was bit higher but it was more perfect than the advanced one. Because by reducing the number of messages transferred (in advanced solution), local site is no longer aware of the fact that remote site has actually released the resource or not because on the confirmation of release message only site updates its local data structures such as request queue etc. If we don't send any explicit notification for release, then requests remains pending unnecessarily in request queue of the local site for entire run.
So my doubt is that if enhancement of complexity is so important, why can't perfection ? I mean if algorithm is producing perfect results at the cost of bit higher complexity then how does it matters as far as I am getting perfection in output as compared to the enhanced complexity solution which lacks in perfection ?
Note : By perfection I don't mean correct/incorrect results. Results are always correct. Only the perfection or accuracy of the produced result varies.
Principally a fair complexity comparision is done for two algoritms that produce exactly the same output. E.g sorting.
In your case it is different, you describe algoritms with different behaviour.
To choose the better suited algorithm many factors decide:
Ease of implementations (in praxis very important)
A faster algorithm, that lacks some functionallity like in your case must be incredible faster (faktor 10 on expected data volume) to choose it, or easier to implement.
robustness: well know algo, successfuly used since 10 years, or a new algo from a paper where chance are high that it works only the environment (optimized for the algo) by the scientist. (I know such a case for a telecom network algo)
Consider any NP-complete problem (e.g. the travelling salesman problem).
There are no known non-exponential exact algorithms for these problems (except in special cases), so it would literally take years (or much longer) to find an exact solution for any reasonably-sized version of these problems.
So, instead we use heuristics and approximations (and possibly some randomness) to get a non-exact solution in a reasonable time-frame.
NP-complete problems are just an extreme example - we can also just have a few seconds to get a solution (for whatever reason), but finding an exact solution will take a few minutes. So it all comes down to balancing out how long we want to run the algorithm for and how good we want the results to be (and development time also certainly plays a role).
I hope I understood what you were asking correctly and that this helps.
Instead of "perfection", maybe you should consider "fitness for a particular purpose".
For your example of a distributed mutual exclusion algorithm, consider the "simple" and "improved" algorithms from different viewpoints. As another answer pointed out, the two algorithms behave differently; my point is that different people are interested in different aspects of that behavior.
Someone using an algorithm for a particular purpose probably does not care about all aspects of its behavior. For your example, you are concerned about pending resource locks. However, if the mutual exclusion algorithm is expected to be running all the time, the user might not care, because the locks will be returned promptly anyway, while using fewer messages than the simple version. If you want both efficiency and promptness, there is likely some way to accommodate both -- at the cost of greater complexity -- and if you're looking for practical "perfection", this is the logical endpoint.
A computer scientist does not know how his algorithm might be used. In general, he cannot anticipate all possible variations on a particular technique, and you would not want to read them all if he could! When publishing an algorithm, clarity of expression is the "perfection" you're pursuing -- the idea should be described as simply as possible.

Simulation Performance Metrics

This is a semi-broad question, but it's one that I feel on some level is answerable or at least approachable.
I've spent the last month or so making a fairly extensive simulation. In order to protect the interests of my employer, I won't state specifically what it does... but an analogy of what it does may be explained by... a high school dance.
A girl or boy enters the dance floor, and based on the selection of free dance partners, an optimal choice is made. After a period of time, two dancers finish dancing and are now free for a new partnership.
I've been making partner selection algorithms designed to maximize average match outcome while not sacrificing wait time for a partner too much.
I want a way to gauge / compare versions of my algorithms in order to make a selection of the optimal algorithm for any situation. This is difficult however since the inputs of my simulation are extremely large matrices of input parameters (2-5 per dancer), and the simulation takes several minutes to run (a fact that makes it difficult to test a large number of simulation inputs). I have a few output metrics, but linking them to the large number of inputs is extremely hard. I'm also interested in finding which algorithms completely fail under certain input conditions...
Any pro tips / online resources which might help me in defining input constraints / output variables which might give clarity on an optimal algorithm?
I might not understand what you exactly want. But here is my suggestion. Let me know if my solution is inaccurate/irrelevant and I will edit/delete accordingly.
Assume you have a certain metric (say compatibility of the pairs or waiting time). If you just have the average or total number for this metric over all the users, it is kind of useless. Instead you might want to find the distribution of of this metric over all users. If nothing, you should always keep track of the variance. Once you have the distribution, you can calculate a probability that particular algorithm A is better than B for a certain metric.
If you do not have the distribution of the metric within an experiment, you can always run multiple experiments, and the number of experiments you need to run depends on the variance of the metric and difference between two algorithms.

Algorithms for realtime strategy wargame AI

I'm designing a realtime strategy wargame where the AI will be responsible for controlling a large number of units (possibly 1000+) on a large hexagonal map.
A unit has a number of action points which can be expended on movement, attacking enemy units or various special actions (e.g. building new units). For example, a tank with 5 action points could spend 3 on movement then 2 in firing on an enemy within range. Different units have different costs for different actions etc.
Some additional notes:
The output of the AI is a "command" to any given unit
Action points are allocated at the beginning of a time period, but may be spent at any point within the time period (this is to allow for realtime multiplayer games). Hence "do nothing and save action points for later" is a potentially valid tactic (e.g. a gun turret that cannot move waiting for an enemy to come within firing range)
The game is updating in realtime, but the AI can get a consistent snapshot of the game state at any time (thanks to the game state being one of Clojure's persistent data structures)
I'm not expecting "optimal" behaviour, just something that is not obviously stupid and provides reasonable fun/challenge to play against
What can you recommend in terms of specific algorithms/approaches that would allow for the right balance between efficiency and reasonably intelligent behaviour?
If you read Russell and Norvig, you'll find a wealth of algorithms for every purpose, updated to pretty much today's state of the art. That said, I was amazed at how many different problem classes can be successfully approached with Bayesian algorithms.
However, in your case I think it would be a bad idea for each unit to have its own Petri net or inference engine... there's only so much CPU and memory and time available. Hence, a different approach:
While in some ways perhaps a crackpot, Stephen Wolfram has shown that it's possible to program remarkably complex behavior on a basis of very simple rules. He bravely extrapolates from the Game of Life to quantum physics and the entire universe.
Similarly, a lot of research on small robots is focusing on emergent behavior or swarm intelligence. While classic military strategy and practice are strongly based on hierarchies, I think that an army of completely selfless, fearless fighters (as can be found marching in your computer) could be remarkably effective if operating as self-organizing clusters.
This approach would probably fit a little better with Erlang's or Scala's actor-based concurrency model than with Clojure's STM: I think self-organization and actors would go together extremely well. Still, I could envision running through a list of units at each turn, and having each unit evaluating just a small handful of very simple rules to determine its next action. I'd be very interested to hear if you've tried this approach, and how it went!
EDIT
Something else that was on the back of my mind but that slipped out again while I was writing: I think you can get remarkable results from this approach if you combine it with genetic or evolutionary programming; i.e. let your virtual toy soldiers wage war on each other as you sleep, let them encode their strategies and mix, match and mutate their code for those strategies; and let a refereeing program select the more successful warriors.
I've read about some startling successes achieved with these techniques, with units operating in ways we'd never think of. I have heard of AIs working on these principles having had to be intentionally dumbed down in order not to frustrate human opponents.
First you should aim to make your game turn based at some level for the AI (i.e. you can somehow model it turn based even if it may not be entirely turn based, in RTS you may be able to break discrete intervals of time into turns.) Second, you should determine how much information the AI should work with. That is, if the AI is allowed to cheat and know every move of its opponent (thereby making it stronger) or if it should know less or more. Third, you should define a cost function of a state. The idea being that a higher cost means a worse state for the computer to be in. Fourth you need a move generator, generating all valid states the AI can transition to from a given state (this may be homogeneous [state-independent] or heterogeneous [state-dependent].)
The thing is, the cost function will be greatly influenced by what exactly you define the state to be. The more information you encode in the state the better balanced your AI will be but the more difficult it will be for it to perform, as it will have to search exponentially more for every additional state variable you include (in an exhaustive search.)
If you provide a definition of a state and a cost function your problem transforms to a general problem in AI that can be tackled with any algorithm of your choice.
Here is a summary of what I think would work well:
Evolutionary algorithms may work well if you put enough effort into them, but they will add a layer of complexity that will create room for bugs amongst other things that can go wrong. They will also require extreme amounts of tweaking of the fitness function etc. I don't have much experience working with these but if they are anything like neural networks (which I believe they are since both are heuristics inspired by biological models) you will quickly find they are fickle and far from consistent. Most importantly, I doubt they add any benefits over the option I describe in 3.
With the cost function and state defined it would technically be possible for you to apply gradient decent (with the assumption that the state function is differentiable and the domain of the state variables are continuous) however this would probably yield inferior results, since the biggest weakness of gradient descent is getting stuck in local minima. To give an example, this method would be prone to something like attacking the enemy always as soon as possible because there is a non-zero chance of annihilating them. Clearly, this may not be desirable behaviour for a game, however, gradient decent is a greedy method and doesn't know better.
This option would be my most highest recommended one: simulated annealing. Simulated annealing would (IMHO) have all the benefits of 1. without the added complexity while being much more robust than 2. In essence SA is just a random walk amongst the states. So in addition to the cost and states you will have to define a way to randomly transition between states. SA is also not prone to be stuck in local minima, while producing very good results quite consistently. The only tweaking required with SA would be the cooling schedule--which decides how fast SA will converge. The greatest advantage of SA I find is that it is conceptually simple and produces superior results empirically to most other methods I have tried. Information on SA can be found here with a long list of generic implementations at the bottom.
3b. (Edit Added much later) SA and the techniques I listed above are general AI techniques and not really specialized to AI for games. In general, the more specialized the algorithm the more chance it has at performing better. See No Free Lunch Theorem 2. Another extension of 3 is something called parallel tempering which dramatically improves the performance of SA by helping it avoid local optima. Some of the original papers on parallel tempering are quite dated 3, but others have been updated4.
Regardless of what method you choose in the end, its going to be very important to break your problem down into states and a cost function as I said earlier. As a rule of thumb I would start with 20-50 state variables as your state search space is exponential in the number of these variables.
This question is huge in scope. You are basically asking how to write a strategy game.
There are tons of books and online articles for this stuff. I strongly recommend the Game Programming Wisdom series and AI Game Programming Wisdom series. In particular, Section 6 of the first volume of AI Game Programming Wisdom covers general architecture, Section 7 covers decision-making architectures, and Section 8 covers architectures for specific genres (8.2 does the RTS genre).
It's a huge question, and the other answers have pointed out amazing resources to look into.
I've dealt with this problem in the past and found the simple-behavior-manifests-complexly/emergent behavior approach a bit too unwieldy for human design unless approached genetically/evolutionarily.
I ended up instead using abstracted layers of AI, similar to a way armies work in real life. Units would be grouped with nearby units of the same time into squads, which are grouped with nearby squads to create a mini battalion of sorts. More layers could be use here (group battalions in a region, etc.), but ultimately at the top there is the high-level strategic AI.
Each layer can only issue commands to the layers directly below it. The layer below it will then attempt to execute the command with the resources at hand (ie, the layers below that layer).
An example of a command issued to a single unit is "Go here" and "shoot at this target". Higher level commands issued to higher levels would be "secure this location", which that level would process and issue the appropriate commands to the lower levels.
The highest level master AI is responsible for very board strategic decisions, such as "we need more ____ units", or "we should aim to move towards this location".
The army analogy works here; commanders and lieutenants and chain of command.

What can be parameters other than time and space while analyzing certain algorithms?

I was interested to know about parameters other than space and time during analysing the effectiveness of an algorithms. For example, we can focus on the effective trap function while developing encryption algorithms. What other things can you think of ?
First and foremost there's correctness. Make sure your algorithm always works, no matter what the input. Even for input that the algorithm is not designed to handle, you should print an error mesage, not crash the entire application. If you use greedy algorithms, make sure they truly work in every case, not just a few cases you tried by hand.
Then there's practical efficiency. An O(N2) algorithm can be a lot faster than an O(N) algorithm in practice. Do actual tests and don't rely on theoretical results too much.
Then there's ease of implementation. You usually don't need the best intro sort implementation to sort an array of 100 integers once, so don't bother.
Look for worst cases in your algorithms and if possible, try to avoid them. If you have a generally fast algorithm but with a very bad worst case, consider detecting that worst case and solving it using another algorithm that is generally slower but better for that single case.
Consider space and time tradeoffs. If you can afford the memory in order to get better speeds, there's probably no reason not to do it, especially if you really need the speed. If you can't afford the memory but can afford to be slower, do that.
If you can, use existing libraries. Don't roll your own multiprecision library if you can use GMP for example. For C++, stuff like boost and even the STL containers and algorithms have been worked on for years by an army of people and are most likely better than you can do alone.
Stability (sorting) - Does the algorithm maintain the relative order of equal elements?
Numeric Stability - Is the algorithm prone to error when very large or small real numbers are used?
Correctness - Does the algorithm always give the correct answer? If not, what is the margin of error?
Generality - Does the algorithm work in many situation (e.g. with many different data types)?
Compactness - Is the program for the algorithm concise?
Parallelizability - How well does performance scale when the number of concurrent threads of execution are increased?
Cache Awareness - Is the algorithm designed to maximize use of the computer's cache?
Cache Obliviousness - Is the algorithm tuned for particulary cache-sizes / cache-line-sizes or does it perform well regardless of the parameters of the cache?
Complexity. 2 algorithms being the same in all other respects, the one that's much simpler is going to be a much better candidate for future customization and use.
Ease of parallelization. Depending on your use case, it might not make any difference or, on the other hand, make the algorithm useless because it can't use 10000 cores.
Stability - some algorithms may "blow up" with certain test conditions, e.g. take an inordinately long time to execute, or use an inordinately large amount of memory, or perhaps not even terminate.
For algorithms that perform floating point operations, the accumulation of round-off error is often a consideration.
Power consumption, for embedded algorithms (think smartcards).
One important parameter that is frequently measure in the analysis of algorithms is that of Cache hits and cache misses. While this is a very implementation and architecture dependent issue, it is possible to generalise somewhat. One particularly interesting property of the algorithm is being Cache-oblivious, which means that the algorithm will use the cache optimally on multiple machines with different cache sizes and structures without modification.
Time and space are the big ones, and they seem so plain and definitive, whereby they should often be qualified (1). The fact that the OP uses the word "parameter" rather than say "criteria" or "properties" is somewhat indicative of this (as if a big O value on time and on space was sufficient to frame the underlying algorithm).
Other criteria include:
domain of applicability
complexity
mathematical tractability
definitiveness of outcome
ease of tuning (may be tied to "complexity" and "tactability" afore mentioned)
ability of running the algorithm in a parallel fashion
(1) "qualified": As hinted in other answers, a -technically- O(n^2) algorithm may be found to be faster than say an O(n) algorithm, in 90% of the cases (which, btw, may turn out to be 100% of the practical cases)
worst case and best case are also interesting, especially when linked to some conditions in the input. if your input data shows some properties, an algorithm, by taking advantage of this property, may perform better that another algorithm which performs the same task but does not use that property.
for example, many sorting algorithm perform very efficiently when input are partially ordered in a specific way which minimizes the number of operations the algorithm has to execute.
(if your input is mostly sorted, an insertion sort will fit nicely, while you would never use that algorithm otherwise)
If we're talking about algorithms in general, then (in the real world) you might have to think about CPU/filesystem(read/write operations)/bandwidth usage.
True they are way down there in the list of things you need worry about these days, but given a massive enough volume of data and cheap enough infrastructure you might have to tweak your code to ease up on one or the other.
What you are interested aren’t parameters, rather they are intrinsic properties of an algorithm.
Anyway, another property you might be interested in, and analyse an algorithm for, concerns heuristics (or rather, approximation algorithms), i.e. algorithms which don’t find an exact solution but rather one that is (hopefully) good enough.
You can analyze how far a solution is from the theoretical optimal solution in the worst case. For example, an existing algorithm (forgot which one) approximates the optimal travelling salesman tour by a factor of two, i.e. in the worst case it’s twice as long as the optimal tour.
Another metric concerns randomized algorithms where randomization is used to prevent unwanted worst-case behaviours. One example is randomized quicksort; quicksort has a worst-case running time of O(n2) which we want to avoid. By shuffling the array beforehand we can avoid the worst-case (i.e. an already sorted array) with a very high probability. Just how high this probability is can be important to know; this is another intrinsic property of the algorithm that can be analyzed using stochastic.
For numeric algorithms, there's also the property of continuity: that is, whether if you change input slightly, output also changes only slightly. See also Continuity analysis of programs on Lambda The Ultimate for a discussion and a link to an academical paper.
For lazy languages, there's also strictness: f is called strict if f _|_ = _|_ (where _|_ denotes the bottom (in the sense of domain theory), a computation that can't produce a result due to non-termination, errors etc.), otherwise it is non-strict. For example, the function \x -> 5 is non-strict, because (\x -> 5) _|_ = 5, whereas \x -> x + 1 is strict.
Another property is determinicity: whether the result of the algorithm (or its other properties, such as running time or space consumption) depends solely on its input.
All these things in the other answers about the quality of various algorithms are important and should be considered.
But time and space are two things that vary at some rate compared to the size of the input (n). So what else can vary according to n?
There are several that are related to I/O. For example, the number of writes to a disk is an important one, which may not be directly shown by space and time estimates alone. This becomes particularly important with flash memory, where the number of writes to the same memory location is the significant metric in some algorithms.
Another I/O metric would be "chattiness". A networking protocol might send shorter messages more often adding up to the same space and time as another networking protocol, but some aspect of the system (perhaps billing?) might make minimizing either the size or number of the messages desireable.
And that brings us to Cost, which is a very important algorithmic consideration sometimes. The cost of an algorithm may be affected by both space and time in different amounts (consider the separate costing of server storage space and gigabits of data transfer), but the cost is the thing that you wish to minimize overall, so it may have its own big-O estimations.

Modeling distribution of performance measurements

How would you mathematically model the distribution of repeated real life performance measurements - "Real life" meaning you are not just looping over the code in question, but it is just a short snippet within a large application running in a typical user scenario?
My experience shows that you usually have a peak around the average execution time that can be modeled adequately with a Gaussian distribution. In addition, there's a "long tail" containing outliers - often with a multiple of the average time. (The behavior is understandable considering the factors contributing to first execution penalty).
My goal is to model aggregate values that reasonably reflect this, and can be calculated from aggregate values (like for the Gaussian, calculate mu and sigma from N, sum of values and sum of squares). In other terms, number of repetitions is unlimited, but memory and calculation requirements should be minimized.
A normal Gaussian distribution can't model the long tail appropriately and will have the average biased strongly even by a very small percentage of outliers.
I am looking for ideas, especially if this has been attempted/analysed before. I've checked various distributions models, and I think I could work out something, but my statistics is rusty and I might end up with an overblown solution. Oh, a complete shrink-wrapped solution would be fine, too ;)
Other aspects / ideas: Sometimes you get "two humps" distributions, which would be acceptable in my scenario with a single mu/sigma covering both, but ideally would be identified separately.
Extrapolating this, another approach would be a "floating probability density calculation" that uses only a limited buffer and adjusts automatically to the range (due to the long tail, bins may not be spaced evenly) - haven't found anything, but with some assumptions about the distribution it should be possible in principle.
Why (since it was asked) -
For a complex process we need to make guarantees such as "only 0.1% of runs exceed a limit of 3 seconds, and the average processing time is 2.8 seconds". The performance of an isolated piece of code can be very different from a normal run-time environment involving varying levels of disk and network access, background services, scheduled events that occur within a day, etc.
This can be solved trivially by accumulating all data. However, to accumulate this data in production, the data produced needs to be limited. For analysis of isolated pieces of code, a gaussian deviation plus first run penalty is ok. That doesn't work anymore for the distributions found above.
[edit] I've already got very good answers (and finally - maybe - some time to work on this). I'm starting a bounty to look for more input / ideas.
Often when you have a random value that can only be positive, a log-normal distribution is a good way to model it. That is, you take the log of each measurement, and assume that is normally distributed.
If you want, you can consider that to have multiple humps, i.e. to be the sum of two normals having different mean. Those are a bit tricky to estimate the parameters of, because you may have to estimate, for each measurement, its probability of belonging to each hump. That may be more than you want to bother with.
Log-normal distributions are very convenient and well-behaved. For example, you don't deal with its average, you deal with it's geometric mean, which is the same as its median.
BTW, in pharmacometric modeling, log-normal distributions are ubiquitous, modeling such things as blood volume, absorption and elimination rates, body mass, etc.
ADDED: If you want what you call a floating distribution, that's called an empirical or non-parametric distribution. To model that, typically you save the measurements in a sorted array. Then it's easy to pick off the percentiles. For example the median is the "middle number". If you have too many measurements to save, you can go to some kind of binning after you have enough measurements to get the general shape.
ADDED: There's an easy way to tell if a distribution is normal (or log-normal). Take the logs of the measurements and put them in a sorted array. Then generate a QQ plot (quantile-quantile). To do that, generate as many normal random numbers as you have samples, and sort them. Then just plot the points, where X is the normal distribution point, and Y is the log-sample point. The results should be a straight line. (A really simple way to generate a normal random number is to just add together 12 uniform random numbers in the range +/- 0.5.)
The problem you describe is called "Distribution Fitting" and has nothing to do with performance measurements, i.e. this is generic problem of fitting suitable distribution to any gathered/measured data sample.
The standard process is something like that:
Guess the best distribution.
Run hypothesis tests to check how well it describes gathered data.
Repeat 1-3 if not well enough.
You can find interesting article describing how this can be done with open-source R software system here. I think especially useful to you may be function fitdistr.
In addition to already given answers consider Empirical Distributions. I have successful experience in using empirical distributions for performance analysis of several distributed systems. The idea is very straightforward. You need to build histogram of performance measurements. Measurements should be discretized with given accuracy. When you have histogram you could do several useful things:
calculate the probability of any given value (you are bound by accuracy only);
build PDF and CDF functions for the performance measurements;
generate sequence of response times according to a distribution. This one is very useful for performance modeling.
Try whit gamma distribution http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma_distribution
From wikipedia
The gamma distribution is frequently a probability model for waiting times; for instance, in life testing, the waiting time until death is a random variable that is frequently modeled with a gamma distribution.
The standard for randomized Arrival times for performance modelling is either Exponential distribution or Poisson distribution (which is just the distribution of multiple Exponential distributions added together).
Not exactly answering your question, but relevant still: Mor Harchol-Balter did a very nice analysis of the size of jobs submitted to a scheduler, The effect of heavy-tailed job size distributions on computer systems design (1999). She found that the size of jobs submitted to her distributed task assignment system took a power-law distribution, which meant that certain pieces of conventional wisdom she had assumed in the construction of her task assignment system, most importantly that the jobs should be well load balanced, had awful consequences for submitters of jobs. She's done good follor-up work on this issue.
The broader point is, you need to ask such questions as:
What happens if reasonable-seeming assumptions about the distribution of performance, such as that they take a normal distribution, break down?
Are the data sets I'm looking at really representative of the problem I'm trying to solve?

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