Optimal Bucket Size and No. of Buckets - algorithm

Sorry this post is not related to coding but more to data structures and Algorithms.
I'm having large amount of data each having different frequencies. The approximate figure plot seems to be a Bell curve. I now want to display the data in ranges which most precisely describes the frequency of the ranges.
e.g. the entire range of data has total no. of frequencies but this range or bucket size is not precise and may be made more precise.(e.g if some data is more concentrated in a particular frequency zone, we may build up a bucket with less data size but having more closely related frequencies.)
Any help regarding some algorithm .
I thought of an algorithm related to binary search.
Any ideas folks.

Not sure I am following, but it seems you are looking for k beans, where for each two beans, the probability of the data falling in one bean is identical for it being in the other bean.
From your description, your data seems to be normally distributed, or T-distributed.
One can evaluate the mean and standard deviation of the data, let the extracted S.D. be s and the mean be u.
The standard formulas for evaluating the mean and S.D. from the sample are1:
u = (x1 + x2 + ... + xn) / n (simple average)
s^2 = Sigma((xi - u)^2)/(n-1)
Given this information, you can evaluate the distribution of your data, which is N(u,s^2). Given this information, you can create a random variabe: X~N(u,s^2)2
Now all is left is finding the a,b,... as follows (assuming 10 buckets, this can obviously be modified as you wish):
P(X<a) = 0.1
P(X<b) = 0.2
P(X<c) = 0.3
...
After finding a,b,c,... you have your beans: (-infinity,a], (a,b], (a,c], ...
(1) evaluating variance: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance#Population_variance_and_sample_variance
(2)The real distribution for this variable is actually t-distribution, since the variance is unknown - and extracted from the data. However - for large enough n - t-distribution decays into normal distribution.

First count all the indexes then subtract the repeating values this will give you optimal number of buckets. but at small level

Related

Does a moving average preserve resolution over sum / count quotient in a binary system?

There are multiple methods for find the average of a set of numbers.
First, the sum / count quotient. Add all values and divide them by the number of values.
Second, the moving average. The function I found in another Stack answer is:
New average = old average * (n-1)/n + new value /n
This works as long as each value is added to the average one value at a time.
My concern is that the second method is more calculatively complex for my processor to execute, but I also fear that the first method will result in a loss of resolution for data sets that result in large sums. In a 32 bit system, for example, the resolution of a float value stored is reduced automatically as the magnitude of the number grows.
Does a moving average preserve resolution?
"moving average" does not calculate average over large interval.
It smooth data in such way that newer measurements give larger impact, and older measurements weight becomes smaller and smaller.
If you bother about large sums and want to preserve all possible data "bits", consider special methods like Kahan summation algorithm

Binary search for no uniform distribution

The binary search is highly efficient for uniform distributions. Each member of your list has equal 'hit' probability. That's why you try the center each time.
Is there an efficient algorithm for no uniform distributions ? e.g. a distribution following a 1/x distribution.
There's a deep connection between binary search and binary trees - binary tree is basically a "precalculated" binary search where the cutting points are decided by the structure of the tree, rather than being chosen as the search runs. And as it turns out, dealing with probability "weights" for each key is sometimes done with binary trees.
One reason is because it's a fairly normal binary search tree but known in advance, complete with knowledge of the query probabilities.
Niklaus Wirth covered this in his book "Algorithms and Data Structures", in a few variants (one for Pascal, one for Modula 2, one for Oberon), at least one of which is available for download from his web site.
Binary trees aren't always binary search trees, though, and one use of a binary tree is to derive a Huffman compression code.
Either way, the binary tree is constructed by starting with the leaves separate and, at each step, joining the two least likely subtrees into a larger subtree until there's only one subtree left. To efficiently pick the two least likely subtrees at each step, a priority queue data structure is used - perhaps a binary heap.
A binary tree that's built once then never modified can have a number of uses, but one that can be efficiently updated is even more useful. There are some weight-balanced binary tree data structures out there, but I'm not familiar with them. Beware - the term "weight balanced" is commonly used where each node always has weight 1, but subtree weights are approximately balanced. Some of these may be adaptable for varied node weights, but I don't know for certain.
Anyway, for a binary search in an array, the problem is that it's possible to use an arbitrary probability distribution, but inefficient. For example, you could have a running-total-of-weights array. For each iteration of your binary search, you want to determine the half-way-through-the-probability distribution point, so you determine the value for that then search the running-total-of-weights array. You get the perfectly weight-balanced next choice for your main binary search, but you had to do a complete binary search into your running total array to do it.
The principle works, however, if you can determine that weighted mid-point without searching for a known probability distribution. The principle is the same - you need the integral of your probability distribution (replacing the running total array) and when you need a mid-point, you choose it to get an exact centre value for the integral. That's more an algebra issue than a programming issue.
One problem with a weighted binary search like this is that the worst-case performance is worse - usually by constant factors but, if the distribution is skewed enough, you may end up with effectively a linear search. If your assumed distribution is correct, the average-case performance is improved despite the occasional slow search, but if your assumed distribution is wrong you could pay for that when many searches are for items that are meant to be unlikely according to that distribution. In the binary tree form, the "unlikely" nodes are further from the root than they would be in a simply balanced (flat probability distribution assumed) binary tree.
A flat probability distribution assumption works very well even when it's completely wrong - the worst case is good, and the best and average cases must be at least that good by definition. The further you move from a flat distribution, the worse things can be if actual query probabilities turn out to be very different from your assumptions.
Let me make it precise. What you want for binary search is:
Given array A which is sorted, but have non-uniform distribution
Given left & right index L & R of search range
Want to search for a value X in A
To apply binary search, we want to find the index M in [L,R]
as the next position to look at.
Where the value X should have equal chances to be in either range [L,M-1] or [M+1,R]
In general, you of course want to pick M where you think X value should be in A.
Because even if you miss, half the total 'chance' would be eliminated.
So it seems to me you have some expectation about distribution.
If you could tell us what exactly do you mean by '1/x distribution', then
maybe someone here can help build on my suggestion for you.
Let me give a worked example.
I'll use similar interpretation of '1/x distribution' as #Leonid Volnitsky
Here is a Python code that generate the input array A
from random import uniform
# Generating input
a,b = 10,20
A = [ 1.0/uniform(a,b) for i in range(10) ]
A.sort()
# example input (rounded)
# A = [0.0513, 0.0552, 0.0562, 0.0574, 0.0576, 0.0602, 0.0616, 0.0721, 0.0728, 0.0880]
Let assume the value to search for is:
X = 0.0553
Then the estimated index of X is:
= total number of items * cummulative probability distribution up to X
= length(A) * P(x <= X)
So how to calculate P(x <= X) ?
It this case it is simple.
We reverse X back to the value between [a,b] which we will call
X' = 1/X ~ 18
Hence
P(x <= X) = (b-X')/(b-a)
= (20-18)/(20-10)
= 2/10
So the expected position of X is:
10*(2/10) = 2
Well, and that's pretty damn accurate!
To repeat the process on predicting where X is in each given section of A require some more work. But I hope this sufficiently illustrate my idea.
I know this might not seems like a binary search anymore
if you can get that close to the answer in just one step.
But admit it, this is what you can do if you know the distribution of input array.
The purpose of a binary search is that, for an array that is sorted, every time you half the array you are minimizing the worst case, e.g. the worst possible number of checks you can do is log2(entries). If you do some kind of an 'uneven' binary search, where you divide the array into a smaller and larger half, if the element is always in the larger half you can have worse worst case behaviour. So, I think binary search would still be the best algorithm to use regardless of expected distribution, just because it has the best worse case behaviour.
You have a vector of entries, say [x1, x2, ..., xN], and you're aware of the fact that the distribution of the queries is given with probability 1/x, on the vector you have. This means your queries will take place with that distribution, i.e., on each consult, you'll take element xN with higher probability.
This causes your binary search tree to be balanced considering your labels, but not enforcing any policy on the search. A possible change on this policy would be to relax the constraint of a balanced binary search tree -- smaller to the left of the parent node, greater to the right --, and actually choosing the parent nodes as the ones with higher probabilities, and their child nodes as the two most probable elements.
Notice this is not a binary search tree, as you are not dividing your search space by two in every step, but rather a rebalanced tree, with respect to your search pattern distribution. This means you're worst case of search may reach O(N). For example, having v = [10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60]:
30
/ \
20 50
/ / \
10 40 60
Which can be reordered, or, rebalanced, using your function f(x) = 1 / x:
f([10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60]) = [0.100, 0.050, 0.033, 0.025, 0.020, 0.016]
sort(v, f(v)) = [10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60]
Into a new search tree, that looks like:
10 -------------> the most probable of being taken
/ \ leaving v = [[20, 30], [40, 50, 60]]
20 30 ---------> the most probable of being taken
/ \ leaving v = [[40, 50], [60]]
40 50 -------> the most probable of being taken
/ leaving v = [[60]]
60
If you search for 10, you only need one comparison, but if you're looking for 60, you'll perform O(N) comparisons, which does not qualifies this as a binary search. As pointed by #Steve314, the farthest you go from a fully balanced tree, the worse will be your worst case of search.
I will assume from your description:
X is uniformly distributed
Y=1/X is your data which you want to search and it is stored in sorted table
given value y, you need to binary search it in the above table
Binary search usually uses value in center of range (median). For uniform distribution it is possible to to speed up search by knowing approximately where in the table to we need to look for searched value.
For example if we have uniformly distributed values in [0,1] range and query is for 0.25, it is best to look not in center of range but in 1st quarter of the range.
To use the same technique for 1/X data, store in table not Y but inverse 1/Y. Search not for y but for inverse value 1/y.
Unweighted binary search isn't even optimal for uniformly distributed keys in expected terms, but it is in worst case terms.
The proportionally weighted binary search (which I have been using for decades) does what you want for uniform data, and by applying an implicit or explicit transform for other distributions. The sorted hash table is closely related (and I've known about this for decades but never bothered to try it).
In this discussion I will assume that the data is uniformly selected from 1..N and in an array of size N indexed by 1..N. If it has a different solution, e.g. a Zipfian distribution where the value is proportional to 1/index, you can apply an inverse function to flatten the distribution, or the Fisher Transform will often help (see Wikipedia).
Initially you have 1..N as the bounds, but in fact you may know the actual Min..Max. In any case we will assume we always have a closed interval [Min,Max] for the index range [L..R] we are currently searching, and initially this is O(N).
We are looking for key K and want index I so that
[I-R]/[K-Max]=[L-I]/[Min-K]=[L-R]/[Min-Max] e.g. I = [R-L]/[Max-Min]*[Max-K] + L.
Round so that the smaller partition gets larger rather than smaller (to help worst case). The expected absolute and root mean square error is <√[R-L] (based on a Poisson/Skellam or a Random Walk model - see Wikipedia). The expected number of steps is thus O(loglogN).
The worst case can be constrained to be O(logN) in several ways. First we can decide what constant we regard as acceptable, perhaps requiring steps 1. Proceeding for loglogN steps as above, and then using halving will achieve this for any such c.
Alternatively we can modify the standard base b=B=2 of the logarithm so b>2. Suppose we take b=8, then effectively c~b/B. we can then modify the rounding above so that at step k the largest partition must be at most N*b^-k. Viz keep track of the size expected if we eliminate 1/b from consideration each step which leads to worst case b/2 lgN. This will however bring our expected case back to O(log N) as we are only allowed to reduce the small partition by 1/b each time. We can restore the O(loglog N) expectation by using simple uprounding of the small partition for loglogN steps before applying the restricted rounding. This is appropriate because within a burst expected to be local to a particular value, the distribution is approximately uniform (that is for any smooth distribution function, e.g. in this case Skellam, any sufficiently small segment is approximately linear with slope given by its derivative at the centre of the segment).
As for the sorted hash, I thought I read about this in Knuth decades ago, but can't find the reference. The technique involves pushing rather than probing - (possibly weighted binary) search to find the right place or a gap then pushing aside to make room as needed, and the hash function must respect the ordering. This pushing can wrap around and so a second pass through the table is needed to pick them all up - it is useful to track Min and Max and their indexes (to get forward or reverse ordered listing start at one and track cyclically to the other; they can then also be used instead of 1 and N as initial brackets for the search as above; otherwise 1 and N can be used as surrogates).
If the load factor alpha is close to 1, then insertion is expected O(√N) for expected O(√N) items, which still amortizes to O(1) on average. This cost is expected to decrease exponentially with alpha - I believe (under Poisson assumptions) that μ ~ σ ~ √[Nexp(α)].
The above proportionally weighted binary search can used to improve on the initial probe.

Data structures for loaded dice?

Suppose that I have an n-sided loaded die, where each side k has some probability pk of coming up when I roll it. I’m curious if there is a good data structure for storing this information statically (i.e., for a fixed set of probabilities), so that I can efficiently simulate a random roll of the die.
Currently, I have an O(lg n) solution for this problem. The idea is to store a table of the cumulative probability of the first k sides for all k, then generate a random real number in the range [0, 1) and perform a binary search over the table to get the largest index whose cumulative value is no greater than the chosen value.
I rather like this solution, but it seems odd that the runtime doesn’t take the probabilities into account. In particular, in the extreme cases of one side always coming up or the values being uniformly distributed, it’s possible to generate the result of the roll in O(1) using a naive approach, while my solution will still take logarithmically many steps.
Does anyone have any suggestions for how to solve this problem in a way that is somehow “adaptive” in it’s runtime?
Update: Based on the answers to this question, I have written up an article describing many approaches to this problem, along with their analyses. It looks like Vose’s implementation of the alias method gives Θ(n) preprocessing time and O(1) time per die roll, which is truly impressive. Hopefully this is a useful addition to the information contained in the answers!
You are looking for the alias method which provides a O(1) method for generating a fixed discrete probability distribution (assuming you can access entries in an array of length n in constant time) with a one-time O(n) set-up. You can find it documented in chapter 3 (PDF) of "Non-Uniform Random Variate Generation" by Luc Devroye.
The idea is to take your array of probabilities pk and produce three new n-element arrays, qk, ak, and bk. Each qk is a probability between 0 and 1, and each ak and bk is an integer between 1 and n.
We generate random numbers between 1 and n by generating two random numbers, r and s, between 0 and 1. Let i = floor(r*N)+1. If qi < s then return ai else return bi. The work in the alias method is in figuring out how to produce qk, ak and bk.
Use a balanced binary search tree (or binary search in an array) and get O(log n) complexity. Have one node for each die result and have the keys be the interval that will trigger that result.
function get_result(node, seed):
if seed < node.interval.start:
return get_result(node.left_child, seed)
else if seed < node.interval.end:
// start <= seed < end
return node.result
else:
return get_result(node.right_child, seed)
The good thing about this solution is that is very simple to implement but still has good complexity.
I'm thinking of granulating your table.
Instead of having a table with the cumulative for each die value, you could create an integer array of length xN, where x is ideally a high number to increase accuracy of the probability.
Populate this array using the index (normalized by xN) as the cumulative value and, in each 'slot' in the array, store the would-be dice roll if this index comes up.
Maybe I could explain easier with an example:
Using three dice: P(1) = 0.2, P(2) = 0.5, P(3) = 0.3
Create an array, in this case I will choose a simple length, say 10. (that is, x = 3.33333)
arr[0] = 1,
arr[1] = 1,
arr[2] = 2,
arr[3] = 2,
arr[4] = 2,
arr[5] = 2,
arr[6] = 2,
arr[7] = 3,
arr[8] = 3,
arr[9] = 3
Then to get the probability, just randomize a number between 0 and 10 and simply access that index.
This method might loose accuracy, but increase x and accuracy will be sufficient.
There are many ways to generate a random integer with a custom distribution (also known as a discrete distribution). The choice depends on many things, including the number of integers to choose from, the shape of the distribution, and whether the distribution will change over time.
One of the simplest ways to choose an integer with a custom weight function f(x) is the rejection sampling method. The following assumes that the highest possible value of f is max and each weight is 0 or greater. The time complexity for rejection sampling is constant on average, but depends greatly on the shape of the distribution and has a worst case of running forever. To choose an integer in [1, k] using rejection sampling:
Choose a uniform random integer i in [1, k].
With probability f(i)/max, return i. Otherwise, go to step 1. (For example, if all the weights are integers greater than 0, choose a uniform random integer in [1, max] and if that number is f(i) or less, return i, or go to step 1 otherwise.)
Other algorithms have an average sampling time that doesn't depend so greatly on the distribution (usually either constant or logarithmic), but often require you to precalculate the weights in a setup step and store them in a data structure. Some of them are also economical in terms of the number of random bits they use on average. Many of these algorithms were introduced after 2011, and they include—
The Bringmann–Larsen succinct data structure ("Succinct Sampling from Discrete Distributions", 2012),
Yunpeng Tang's multi-level search ("An Empirical Study of Random Sampling Methods for Changing Discrete Distributions", 2019), and
the Fast Loaded Dice Roller (2020).
Other algorithms include the alias method (already mentioned in your article), the Knuth–Yao algorithm, the MVN data structure, and more. See my section "Weighted Choice With Replacement" for a survey.

incremental way of counting quantiles for large set of data

I need to count the quantiles for a large set of data.
Let's assume we can get the data only through some portions (i.e. one row of a large matrix). To count the Q3 quantile one need to get all the portions of the data and store it somewhere, then sort it and count the quantile:
List<double> allData = new List<double>();
// This is only an example; the portions of data are not really rows of some matrix
foreach(var row in matrix)
{
allData.AddRange(row);
}
allData.Sort();
double p = 0.75 * allData.Count;
int idQ3 = (int)Math.Ceiling(p) - 1;
double Q3 = allData[idQ3];
I would like to find a way of obtaining the quantile without storing the data in an intermediate variable. The best solution would be to count some parameters of mid-results for first row and then adjust it step by step for next rows.
Note:
These datasets are really big (ca 5000 elements in each row)
The Q3 can be estimated, it doesn't have to be an exact value.
I call the portions of data "rows", but they can have different leghts! Usually it varies not so much (+/- few hundred samples) but it varies!
This question is similar to “On-line” (iterator) algorithms for estimating statistical median, mode, skewness, kurtosis, but I need to count quantiles.
ALso there are few articles in this topic, i.e.:
An Efficient Algorithm for the Approximate Median Selection Problem
Incremental quantile estimation for massive tracking
Before trying to implement these approaches, I wondered if there are maybe any other, quicker ways of counting the 0.25/0.75 quantiles?
I second the idea of using buckets. Don't limit yourself to 100 buckets - might as well use 1 million. The tricky part is to pick your bucket ranges so that everything doesn't end up in a single bucket. Probably the best way to estimate your bucket ranges is to take a reasonable random sample of your data, compute the 10% and 90% quantiles using the simple sort algorithm, then generate equal-sized buckets to fill that range. It isn't perfect, but if your data isn't from a super-weird distribution, it should work.
If you can't do random samples, you're in more trouble. You can pick an initial bucketing guess based on your expected data distribution, then while working through your data if any bucket (typically the first or last bucket) gets overfull, start over again with a new bucket range.
There is a more recent and much simpler algorithm for this that provides very good estimates of the extreme quantiles.
The basic idea is that smaller bins are used at the extremes in a way that both bounds the size of the data structure and guarantees higher accuracy for small or large q. The algorithm is available in several languages and many packages. The MergingDigest version requires no dynamic allocation ... once the MergingDigest is instantiated, no further heap allocation is required.
See https://github.com/tdunning/t-digest
Only retrieve the data you really need -- i.e., whatever value(s) is/are being used as the key for sorting, not everything else associated with it.
You can probably use Tony Hoare's Select algorithm to find your quantile more quickly than sorting all the data.
If your data has a Gaussian distribution, you can estimate the quantiles from the standard deviation. I assume your data isn't Gaussian distributed or you'd just be using the SD anyway.
If you can pass through your data twice, I'd do the following:
First pass, compute the max, min, SD and mean.
Second pass, divide the range [min,max] into some number of buckets (e.g. 100); do the same for (mean - 2*SD,mean + 2*SD) (with extra buckets for outliers). Then run through the data again, tossing numbers into these buckets.
Count buckets until you are at 25% and 75% of the data. If you want to get extra-fancy, you can interpolate between bucket values. (I.e. if you need 10% of a bucket to hit your 25th quantile, assume the value is 10% of the way from the low bound to the upper bound.)
This should give you a pretty good linear-time algorithm that works okay for most sets of not-entirely-perverse data.
Inspired by this answer I created a method that estimates the quantiles quite good. It is approximation close enough for my purposes.
The idea is following: the 0.75 quantile is in fact a median of all values that lies above the global median. And respectively, 0.25 quantile is a median of all values below the global median.
So if we can approximate the median, we can in similar way approximate the quantiles.
double median = 0;
double q1 = 0;
double q3 = 0;
double eta = 0.005;
foreach( var value in listOfValues) // or stream, or any other large set of data...
{
median += eta * Math.Sign(p.Int - median);
}
// Second pass. We know the median, so we can count the quantiles.
foreach(var value in listOfValues)
{
if(p.Int < median)
q1 += eta*Math.Sign(p.Int - q1);
else
q3 += eta*Math.Sign(p.Int - q3);
}
Remarks:
If distribution of your data is strange, you will need to have bigger eta in order to fit to the strange data. But the accuracy will be worse.
If the distribution is strange, but you know the total size of your collection (i.e. N) you can adjust the eta parameter in this way: at the beggining set the eta to be almost equal some large value (i.e. 0.2). As the loop passes, lower the value of eta so when you reach almost the end of the collection, the eta will be almost equal 0 (for example, in loop compute it like that: eta = 0.2 - 0.2*(i/N);
q-digest is an approximate online algorithm that lets you compute quantile: http://www.cs.virginia.edu/~son/cs851/papers/ucsb.sensys04.pdf
Here is an implementation:
https://github.com/airlift/airlift/blob/master/stats/src/main/java/io/airlift/stats/QuantileDigest.java

How to calculate or approximate the median of a list without storing the list

I'm trying to calculate the median of a set of values, but I don't want to store all the values as that could blow memory requirements. Is there a way of calculating or approximating the median without storing and sorting all the individual values?
Ideally I would like to write my code a bit like the following
var medianCalculator = new MedianCalculator();
foreach (var value in SourceData)
{
medianCalculator.Add(value);
}
Console.WriteLine("The median is: {0}", medianCalculator.Median);
All I need is the actual MedianCalculator code!
Update: Some people have asked if the values I'm trying to calculate the median for have known properties. The answer is yes. One value is in 0.5 increments from about -25 to -0.5. The other is also in 0.5 increments from -120 to -60. I guess this means I can use some form of histogram for each value.
Thanks
Nick
If the values are discrete and the number of distinct values isn't too high, you could just accumulate the number of times each value occurs in a histogram, then find the median from the histogram counts (just add up counts from the top and bottom of the histogram until you reach the middle). Or if they're continuous values, you could distribute them into bins - that wouldn't tell you the exact median but it would give you a range, and if you need to know more precisely you could iterate over the list again, examining only the elements in the central bin.
There is the 'remedian' statistic. It works by first setting up k arrays, each of length b. Data values are fed in to the first array and, when this is full, the median is calculated and stored in the first pos of the next array, after which the first array is re-used. When the second array is full the median of its values is stored in the first pos of the third array, etc. etc. You get the idea :)
It's simple and pretty robust. The reference is here...
http://web.ipac.caltech.edu/staff/fmasci/home/astro_refs/Remedian.pdf
Hope this helps
Michael
I use these incremental/recursive mean and median estimators, which both use constant storage:
mean += eta * (sample - mean)
median += eta * sgn(sample - median)
where eta is a small learning rate parameter (e.g. 0.001), and sgn() is the signum function which returns one of {-1, 0, 1}. (Use a constant eta if the data is non-stationary and you want to track changes over time; otherwise, for stationary sources you can use something like eta=1/n for the mean estimator, where n is the number of samples seen so far... unfortunately, this does not appear to work for the median estimator.)
This type of incremental mean estimator seems to be used all over the place, e.g. in unsupervised neural network learning rules, but the median version seems much less common, despite its benefits (robustness to outliers). It seems that the median version could be used as a replacement for the mean estimator in many applications.
Also, I modified the incremental median estimator to estimate arbitrary quantiles. In general, a quantile function tells you the value that divides the data into two fractions: p and 1-p. The following estimates this value incrementally:
quantile += eta * (sgn(sample - quantile) + 2.0 * p - 1.0)
The value p should be within [0,1]. This essentially shifts the sgn() function's symmetrical output {-1,0,1} to lean toward one side, partitioning the data samples into two unequally-sized bins (fractions p and 1-p of the data are less than/greater than the quantile estimate, respectively). Note that for p=0.5, this reduces to the median estimator.
I would love to see an incremental mode estimator of a similar form...
(Note: I also posted this to a similar topic here: "On-line" (iterator) algorithms for estimating statistical median, mode, skewness, kurtosis?)
Here is a crazy approach that you might try. This is a classical problem in streaming algorithms. The rules are
You have limited memory, say O(log n) where n is the number of items you want
You can look at each item once and make a decision then and there what to do with it, if you store it, it costs memory, if you throw it away it is gone forever.
The idea for the finding a median is simple. Sample O(1 / a^2 * log(1 / p)) * log(n) elements from the list at random, you can do this via reservoir sampling (see a previous question). Now simply return the median from your sampled elements, using a classical method.
The guarantee is that the index of the item returned will be (1 +/- a) / 2 with probability at least 1-p. So there is a probability p of failing, you can choose it by sampling more elements. And it wont return the median or guarantee that the value of the item returned is anywhere close to the median, just that when you sort the list the item returned will be close to the half of the list.
This algorithm uses O(log n) additional space and runs in Linear time.
This is tricky to get right in general, especially to handle degenerate series that are already sorted, or have a bunch of values at the "start" of the list but the end of the list has values in a different range.
The basic idea of making a histogram is most promising. This lets you accumulate distribution information and answer queries (like median) from it. The median will be approximate since you obviously don't store all values. The storage space is fixed so it will work with whatever length sequence you have.
But you can't just build a histogram from say the first 100 values and use that histogram continually.. the changing data may make that histogram invalid. So you need a dynamic histogram that can change its range and bins on the fly.
Make a structure which has N bins. You'll store the X value of each slot transition (N+1 values total) as well as the population of the bin.
Stream in your data. Record the first N+1 values. If the stream ends before this, great, you have all the values loaded and you can find the exact median and return it. Else use the values to define your first histogram. Just sort the values and use those as bin definitions, each bin having a population of 1. It's OK to have dupes (0 width bins).
Now stream in new values. For each one, binary search to find the bin it belongs to.
In the common case, you just increment the population of that bin and continue.
If your sample is beyond the histogram's edges (highest or lowest), just extend the end bin's range to include it.
When your stream is done, you find the median sample value by finding the bin which has equal population on both sides of it, and linearly interpolating the remaining bin-width.
But that's not enough.. you still need to ADAPT the histogram to the data as it's being streamed in. When a bin gets over-full, you're losing information about that bin's sub distribution.
You can fix this by adapting based on some heuristic... The easiest and most robust one is if a bin reaches some certain threshold population (something like 10*v/N where v=# of values seen so far in the stream, and N is the number of bins), you SPLIT that overfull bin. Add a new value at the midpoint of the bin, give each side half of the original bin's population. But now you have too many bins, so you need to DELETE a bin. A good heuristic for that is to find the bin with the smallest product of population and width. Delete it and merge it with its left or right neighbor (whichever one of the neighbors itself has the smallest product of width and population.). Done!
Note that merging or splitting bins loses information, but that's unavoidable.. you only have fixed storage.
This algorithm is nice in that it will deal with all types of input streams and give good results. If you have the luxury of choosing sample order, a random sample is best, since that minimizes splits and merges.
The algorithm also allows you to query any percentile, not just median, since you have a complete distribution estimate.
I use this method in my own code in many places, mostly for debugging logs.. where some stats that you're recording have unknown distribution. With this algorithm you don't need to guess ahead of time.
The downside is the unequal bin widths means you have to do a binary search for each sample, so your net algorithm is O(NlogN).
David's suggestion seems like the most sensible approach for approximating the median.
A running mean for the same problem is a much easier to calculate:
Mn = Mn-1 + ((Vn - Mn-1) / n)
Where Mn is the mean of n values, Mn-1 is the previous mean, and Vn is the new value.
In other words, the new mean is the existing mean plus the difference between the new value and the mean, divided by the number of values.
In code this would look something like:
new_mean = prev_mean + ((value - prev_mean) / count)
though obviously you may want to consider language-specific stuff like floating-point rounding errors etc.
I don't think it is possible to do without having the list in memory. You can obviously approximate with
average if you know that the data is symmetrically distributed
or calculate a proper median of a small subset of data (that fits in memory) - if you know that your data has the same distribution across the sample (e.g. that the first item has the same distribution as the last one)
Find Min and Max of the list containing N items through linear search and name them as HighValue and LowValue
Let MedianIndex = (N+1)/2
1st Order Binary Search:
Repeat the following 4 steps until LowValue < HighValue.
Get MedianValue approximately = ( HighValue + LowValue ) / 2
Get NumberOfItemsWhichAreLessThanorEqualToMedianValue = K
is K = MedianIndex, then return MedianValue
is K > MedianIndex ? then HighValue = MedianValue Else LowValue = MedianValue
It will be faster without consuming memory
2nd Order Binary Search:
LowIndex=1
HighIndex=N
Repeat Following 5 Steps until (LowIndex < HighIndex)
Get Approximate DistrbutionPerUnit=(HighValue-LowValue)/(HighIndex-LowIndex)
Get Approximate MedianValue = LowValue + (MedianIndex-LowIndex) * DistributionPerUnit
Get NumberOfItemsWhichAreLessThanorEqualToMedianValue = K
is (K=MedianIndex) ? return MedianValue
is (K > MedianIndex) ? then HighIndex=K and HighValue=MedianValue Else LowIndex=K and LowValue=MedianValue
It will be faster than 1st order without consuming memory
We can also think of fitting HighValue, LowValue and MedianValue with HighIndex, LowIndex and MedianIndex to a Parabola, and can get ThirdOrder Binary Search which will be faster than 2nd order without consuming memory and so on...
Usually if the input is within a certain range, say 1 to 1 million, it's easy to create an array of counts: read the code for "quantile" and "ibucket" here: http://code.google.com/p/ea-utils/source/browse/trunk/clipper/sam-stats.cpp
This solution can be generalized as an approximation by coercing the input into an integer within some range using a function that you then reverse on the way out: IE: foo.push((int) input/1000000) and quantile(foo)*1000000.
If your input is an arbitrary double precision number, then you've got to autoscale your histogram as values come in that are out of range (see above).
Or you can use the median-triplets method described in this paper: http://web.cs.wpi.edu/~hofri/medsel.pdf
I picked up the idea of iterative quantile calculation. It is important to have a good value for starting point and eta, these may come from mean and sigma. So I programmed this:
Function QuantileIterative(Var x : Array of Double; n : Integer; p, mean, sigma : Double) : Double;
Var eta, quantile,q1, dq : Double;
i : Integer;
Begin
quantile:= mean + 1.25*sigma*(p-0.5);
q1:=quantile;
eta:=0.2*sigma/xy(1+n,0.75); // should not be too large! sets accuracy
For i:=1 to n Do
quantile := quantile + eta * (signum_smooth(x[i] - quantile,eta) + 2*p - 1);
dq:=abs(q1-quantile);
If dq>eta
then Begin
If dq<3*eta then eta:=eta/4;
For i:=1 to n Do
quantile := quantile + eta * (signum_smooth(x[i] - quantile,eta) + 2*p - 1);
end;
QuantileIterative:=quantile
end;
As the median for two elements would be the mean, I used a smoothed signum function, and xy() is x^y. Are there ideas to make it better? Of course if we have some more a-priori knowledge we can add code using min and max of the array, skew, etc. For big data you would not use an array perhaps, but for testing it is easier.
On homogeneous random ordered and for big enough list, this pseudo code can work:
# find min on the fly
if minDataPoint > dataPoint:
minDataPoint = dataPoint
# find max on the fly
if maxDataPoint < dataPoint:
maxDataPoint = dataPoint
# estimate median base on the current data
estimate_mid = (maxDataPoint + minDataPoint) / 2
#if **new** dataPoint is closer to the mid? stor it
if abs(midDataPoint - estimate_mid) > abs(dataPoint - estimate_mid):
midDataPoint = dataPoint
Inspired by #lakshmanaraj

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