Machine Learning Algorithm for Completing Sparse Matrix Data - algorithm

Question

I've seen some machine learning questions on here so I figured I would post a related question:
Suppose I have a dataset where athletes participate at running competitions of 10 km and 20 km with hilly courses i.e. every competition has its own difficulty.
The finishing times from users are almost inverse normally distributed for every competition.
One can write this problem as a matrix:
Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
User1 20min ?? 10min
User2 25min 20min 12min
User3 30min 25min ??
User4 30min ?? ??
I would like to complete the matrix above which has the size 1000x20 and a sparseness of 8 % (!).
There should be a very easy way to complete this matrix, since I can calculate parameters for every user (ability) and parameters for every competition (mu, lambda of distributions). Moreover the correlation between the competitions are very high.
I can take advantage of the rankings User1 < User2 < User3 and Item3 << Item2 < Item1
Could you maybe give me a hint which methods I could use?

Answer 1

Your astute observation that this is a matrix completion problem gets
you most of the way to the solution. I'll codify your intuition that
the combination of ability of a user and difficulty of the course
yields the time of a race, then present various algorithms.
Model
Let the vector u denote the speed of the users so that u_i is user i's
speed. Let the vector v denote the difficulty of the courses so
that v_j is course j's difficulty. Also when available, let t_ij be user i's time on
course j, and define y_ij = 1/t_ij, user i's speed on course j.
Since you say the times are inverse Gaussian distributed, a sensible
model for the observations is
y_ij = u_i * v_j + e_ij,
where e_ij is a zero-mean Gaussian random variable.
To fit this model, we search for vectors u and v that minimize the
prediction error among the observed speeds:
f(u,v) = sum_ij (u_i * v_j - y_ij)^2
Algorithm 1: missing value Singular Value Decomposition
This is the classical Hebbian
algorithm. It
minimizes the above cost function by gradient descent. The gradient of
f wrt to u and v are
df/du_i = sum_j (u_i * v_j - y_ij) v_j
df/dv_j = sum_i (u_i * v_j - y_ij) u_i
Plug these gradients into a Conjugate Gradient solver or BFGS
optimizer, like MATLAB's fmin_unc or scipy's optimize.fmin_ncg or
optimize.fmin_bfgs. Don't roll your own gradient descent unless you're willing to implement a very good line search algorithm.
Algorithm 2: matrix factorization with a trace norm penalty
Recently, simple convex relaxations to this problem have been
proposed. The resulting algorithms are just as simple to code up and seem to
work very well. Check out, for example Collaborative Filtering in a Non-Uniform World:
Learning with the Weighted Trace Norm. These methods minimize
f(m) = sum_ij (m_ij - y_ij)^2 + ||m||_*,
where ||.||_* is the so-called nuclear norm of the matrix m. Implementations will end up again computing gradients with respect to u and v and relying on a nonlinear optimizer.

Answer 2

There are several ways to do this, perhaps the best architecture to try first is the following:
(As usual, as a preprocessing step normalize your data into a uniform function with 0 mean and 1 std deviation as best you can. You can do this by fitting a function to the distribution of all race results, applying its inverse, and then subtracting the mean and dividing by the std deviation.)
Select a hyperparameter N (you can tune this as usual with a cross validation set).
For each participant and each race create an N-dimensional feature vector, initially random. So if there are R races and P participants then there are R+P feature vectors with a total of N(R+P) parameters.
The prediction for a given participant and a given race is a function of the two corresponding feature vectors (as a first try use the scalar product of these two vectors).
Alternate between incrementally improving the participant feature vectors and the race feature vectors.
To improve a feature vector use gradient descent (or some more complex optimization method) on the known data elements (the participant/race pairs for which you have a result).
That is your loss function is:
total_error = 0
forall i,j
if (Participant i participated in Race j)
actual = ActualRaceResult(i,j)
predicted = ScalarProduct(ParticipantFeatures_i, RaceFeatures_j)
total_error += (actual - predicted)^2
So calculate the partial derivative of this function wrt the feature vectors and adjust them incrementally as per a usual ML algorithm.
(You should also include a regularization term on the loss function, for example square of the lengths of the feature vectors)
Let me know if this architecture is clear to you or you need further elaboration.

Answer 3

I think this is a classical task of missing data recovery. There exist some different methods. One of them which I can suggest is based on Self Organizing Feature Map (Kohonen's Map).
Below it's assumed that every athlet record is a pattern, and every competition data is a feature.
Basically, you should divide your data into 2 sets: first - with fully defined patterns, and second - patterns with partially lost features. I assume this is eligible because sparsity is 8%, that is you have enough data (92%) to train net on undamaged records.
Then you feed first set to the SOM and train it on this data. During this process all features are used. I'll not copy algorithm here, because it can be found in many public sources, and even some implementations are available.
After the net is trained, you can feed patterns from the second set to the net. For each pattern the net should calculate best matching unit (BMU), based only on those features that exist in the current pattern. Then you can take from the BMU its weigths, corresponding to missing features.
As alternative, you could not divide the whole data into 2 sets, but train the net on all patterns including the ones with missing features. But for such patterns learning process should be altered in the similar way, that is BMU should be calculated only on existing features in every pattern.

Answer 4

I think you can have a look at the recent low rank matrix completion methods.
The assumption is that your matrix has a low rank compared to the matrix dimension.
min rank(M)
s.t. ||P(M-M')||_F=0
M is the final result, and M' is the uncompleted matrix you currently have.
This algorithm minimizes the rank of your matrix M. P in the constraint is an operator that takes the known terms of your matrix M', and constraint those terms in M to be the same as in M'.
The optimization of this problem has a relaxed version, which is:
min ||M||_* + \lambda*||P(M-M')||_F
rank(M) is relaxed to its convex hull ||M||_* Then you trade off the two terms by controlling the parameter lambda.