Optimal parameters not found: Number of calls to function has reached maxfev = 100 - curve-fitting

Question

I'm new to python, I try to give some adjustment to the data, but when I get the graph, only the original data appears and with the message "Optimal parameters not found: Number of calls to function has reached maxfev = 1000." Could you help me find my mistake?
%matplotlib inline
import matplotlib.pylab as m
from scipy.optimize import curve_fit
import numpy as num
import scipy.optimize as optimize
xData=num.array([0,0,100,200,250,300,400], dtype="float")
yData=num.array([0,0,0,0,75,100,100], dtype="float")
m.plot(xData, yData, 'ro', label='Datos originales')
def fun(x, a, b):
return a + b * num.log(x)
popt,pcov=optimize.curve_fit(fun, xData, yData,p0=[1,1], maxfev=1000)
print=popt
x=num.linspace(1,400,7)
m.plot(x,fun(x, *popt), label='Función ajustada')
m.xlabel('concentración')
m.ylabel('% mortalidad')
m.legend()
m.grid()

Answer 1

The model in your code is "a + b * num.log(x)". Because your data contains an x value of 0.0, the evaluation of log(0.0) gives errors and will not allow the fitting software to function. Sometimes these x values of 0.0 can be replaced with very small numbers, as log(small number) will not fail - but in this case the equation and data do not appear to match and so using that technique alone would not be sufficient here.
My thought is that a different equation would be a better model for this data. I performed an equation search using your data, and found that several different sigmoidal type equations gave suspiciously good fits to this data set - which is not surprising because of the small number of data points.
The sigmoidal equations I tried were all extremely sensitive to the initial parameter estimates. Here is a graphical Python fitter using scipy's Differential Evolution genetic algorithm module to determine the initial parameter estimates for curve_fit's non-linear solver. That scipy module uses the Latin Hypercube algorithm to ensure a thorough search of parameter space, requiring bounds within which to search. Here those bounds are taken from the data maximum and minimun values.
I personally would not use this fit precisely because the small number of data points is giving such suspiciously good fits, and strongly recommend taking additional data points if at all possible. I could however not find any equations with less than three parameters that would fit the data.
import numpy, scipy, matplotlib
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from scipy.optimize import curve_fit
from scipy.optimize import differential_evolution
import warnings
xData=numpy.array([0,0,100,200,250,300,400], dtype="float")
yData=numpy.array([0,0,0,0,75,100,100], dtype="float")
def func(x, a, b, c): # Sigmoid B equation from zunzun.com
return a / (1.0 + numpy.exp(-1.0 * (x - b) / c))
# function for genetic algorithm to minimize (sum of squared error)
def sumOfSquaredError(parameterTuple):
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore") # do not print warnings by genetic algorithm
val = func(xData, *parameterTuple)
return numpy.sum((yData - val) ** 2.0)
def generate_Initial_Parameters():
# min and max used for bounds
maxX = max(xData)
minX = min(xData)
parameterBounds = []
parameterBounds.append([minX, maxX]) # search bounds for a
parameterBounds.append([minX, maxX]) # search bounds for b
parameterBounds.append([0.0, 2.0]) # search bounds for c
# "seed" the numpy random number generator for repeatable results
result = differential_evolution(sumOfSquaredError, parameterBounds, seed=3)
return result.x
# by default, differential_evolution completes by calling curve_fit() using parameter bounds
geneticParameters = generate_Initial_Parameters()
# now call curve_fit without passing bounds from the genetic algorithm,
# just in case the best fit parameters are aoutside those bounds
fittedParameters, pcov = curve_fit(func, xData, yData, geneticParameters)
print('Fitted parameters:', fittedParameters)
print()
modelPredictions = func(xData, *fittedParameters)
absError = modelPredictions - yData
SE = numpy.square(absError) # squared errors
MSE = numpy.mean(SE) # mean squared errors
RMSE = numpy.sqrt(MSE) # Root Mean Squared Error, RMSE
Rsquared = 1.0 - (numpy.var(absError) / numpy.var(yData))
print()
print('RMSE:', RMSE)
print('R-squared:', Rsquared)
print()
##########################################################
# graphics output section
def ModelAndScatterPlot(graphWidth, graphHeight):
f = plt.figure(figsize=(graphWidth/100.0, graphHeight/100.0), dpi=100)
axes = f.add_subplot(111)
# first the raw data as a scatter plot
axes.plot(xData, yData, 'D')
# create data for the fitted equation plot
xModel = numpy.linspace(min(xData), max(xData), 100)
yModel = func(xModel, *fittedParameters)
# now the model as a line plot
axes.plot(xModel, yModel)
axes.set_xlabel('X Data') # X axis data label
axes.set_ylabel('Y Data') # Y axis data label
plt.show()
plt.close('all') # clean up after using pyplot
graphWidth = 800
graphHeight = 600
ModelAndScatterPlot(graphWidth, graphHeight)