i am developing a model predictive controller (MPC) with a moving horizon estimation (MHE) Plugin for a dynamic simulation program.
My Problem is, that the simulation program executes the Python script in each timestep. So each timestep a new model in GEKKO is produced. Is there a possibility reload the model and the data files? So for example give the path of the data to GEKKO?
Best Regards,
Moritz
Try using a Pickle file to store the Gekko model. If the Gekko model archive exists then it is read back into Python.
from os.path import exists
import pickle
import numpy as np
from gekko import GEKKO
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
if exists('m.pkl'):
# load model from subsequent call
m = pickle.load(open('m.pkl','rb'))
m.solve()
else:
# define model the first time
m = GEKKO()
m.time = np.linspace(0,20,41)
m.p = m.MV(value=0, lb=0, ub=1)
m.v = m.CV(value=0)
m.Equation(5*m.v.dt() == -m.v + 10*m.p)
m.options.IMODE = 6
m.p.STATUS = 1; m.p.DCOST = 1e-3
m.v.STATUS = 1; m.v.SP = 40; m.v.TAU = 5
m.options.CV_TYPE = 2
m.solve()
pickle.dump(m,open('m.pkl','wb'))
plt.figure()
plt.subplot(2,1,1)
plt.plot(m.time,m.p.value,'b-',lw=2)
plt.ylabel('gas')
plt.subplot(2,1,2)
plt.plot(m.time,m.v.value,'r--',lw=2)
plt.ylabel('velocity')
plt.xlabel('time')
plt.show()
Each cycle of the controller, the plot updates with the automatic time-shift of the initial condition.
This is similar to what happens in a loop with a combined MHE and MPC. As long as you include everything in the Pickle file, it should reload on the next cycle.
Here is the example code for MHE and MPC.
Related
I have a question for those who have some experience with timeseries forecasting.
I have been experiment with this field for few weeks and i was trying to forecast some timeseries with both ARIMA and LSTM models to compare the results.
Basically i did plot this graph Figure 1 that has 4 plots :
Top left : ARIMA training data points and fitted model points.
Top right : ARIMA test and forecast points.
Bottom Left : LSTM training data and fitted data (i could not really find fitted point for LSTM so i just forecasted the training data but you can just ignore that part).
Bottom right : Test and forecast data for the LSTM model.
This graph was acceptable and also i did compute the RMSE and MSE and LSTM gave lower error which agrees with most literature online that states the superiority of LSTM over ARIMA models.
However after i did plot the loss and validation loss of the LSTM model to have more insights, i noticed that the validation_loss is following a wierd flectuating pattern Figure 2.
I can explain this as follow : the time series has a lot of outliers or abnormal behaviour, so splitting it to train/validation/test would mean validation cannot be really a good metric to show how good the model can learn.
But since all research papers never show this graph and explain this problem, i don't have a solid argument to defende this idea.
what do you guys think?
Thank you in advance
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller
from statsmodels.graphics.tsaplots import plot_acf,plot_pacf
import statsmodels.api as sm
from statsmodels.tsa.arima.model import ARIMA
from sklearn.metrics import r2_score,mean_squared_error,mean_absolute_percentage_error,mean_absolute_percentage_error
from statsmodels.tsa.seasonal import STL
import numpy as np
from pandas import Series, DataFrame
from scipy import stats
from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller
import statsmodels
from statsmodels.tsa.seasonal import seasonal_decompose
from pandas.plotting import register_matplotlib_converters
import pmdarima as pm
register_matplotlib_converters()
import warnings
import time
from numpy import array
from keras.models import Sequential
from keras.layers import LSTM
from keras.layers import Dense
from numpy import array
import keras_tuner as kt
import tensorflow as tf
print(tf.__version__)
from numpy import array
from tensorflow import keras
import keras_tuner as kt
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
from keras.layers import Bidirectional
from keras.models import Sequential
from keras.preprocessing.sequence import TimeseriesGenerator
from keras.layers import Bidirectional
from tensorflow.keras import initializers
import random as rn
np.random.seed(123)
rn.seed(123)
tf.random.set_seed(123)
tf.keras.utils.set_random_seed(123)
keras.utils.set_random_seed(123)
warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
df3 = pd.read_csv('favorita_train.csv')
## 1 - Get TS and do STL
print("TS lenbgth : "+str(len(df3)))
results = seasonal_decompose(df3['unit_sales'],period=30)
results.plot();
train_all = df3.iloc[:int(len(df3)*0.8)]
train = df3.iloc[:int(len(df3)*0.6)]
val = df3.iloc[int(len(df3)*0.6):int(len(df3)*0.8)]
test = df3.iloc[int(len(df3)*0.8):]
scaler = MinMaxScaler()
scaler.fit(train_all)
scaled_all = scaler.transform(df3)
scaled_train = scaler.transform(train)
scaled_train_all = scaler.transform(train_all)
scaled_val = scaler.transform(val)
scaled_test = scaler.transform(test)
# We do the same thing, but now instead for 12 months
n_features = 1
n_input =5
train_generator_all = TimeseriesGenerator(scaled_train_all, scaled_train_all, length=n_input, batch_size=1,shuffle=True)
train_generator = TimeseriesGenerator(scaled_train, scaled_train, length=n_input, batch_size=1,shuffle=True)
val_generator = TimeseriesGenerator(scaled_val, scaled_val, length=n_input, batch_size=1,shuffle=True)
adfPValue = adfuller(scaled_all)
adfPValue=adfPValue[1]
adi = len(scaled_all)/((scaled_all != 0).sum())
sd=scaled_all.std()
mean=scaled_all.mean()
cv2 = np.square(sd/mean)
print("CV2 (describe magnitude of demande variability <0.5 is good) :"+str(cv2))
print("SD (-2,2 is good | mean data variance is low) :"+str(sd))
print("ADI (1.3 or smaller means smooth ts) :"+str(adi))
print("Stationarity test (stationary if <0.05) :"+str(adfPValue))
def model_builder(hp):
model = keras.Sequential()
hp_units = hp.Int('units', min_value=1, max_value=50, step=1)
hp_layers = hp.Int('layers', min_value=1, max_value=3, step=1)
if hp_layers==1 :
model.add(Bidirectional(LSTM(hp_units,activation='relu'), input_shape=(n_input, n_features)))
elif hp_layers==2:
model.add(Bidirectional(LSTM(hp_units, activation='relu', return_sequences=True), input_shape=(n_input, n_features)))
model.add(Bidirectional(LSTM(hp_units, activation='relu')))
else:
model.add(Bidirectional(LSTM(hp_units, activation='relu', return_sequences=True), input_shape=(n_input, n_features)))
for i in range(hp_layers-2):
model.add(Bidirectional(LSTM(hp_units, activation='relu', return_sequences=True)))
model.add(Bidirectional(LSTM(hp_units, activation='relu')))
model.add(Dense(1))
hp_learning_rate = hp.Choice('learning_rate', values=[1e-2, 1e-3, 1e-4])
model.compile(optimizer=keras.optimizers.Adam(learning_rate=hp_learning_rate), loss='mse',metrics=['accuracy'])
return model
tuner = kt.Hyperband(model_builder,
objective='val_loss',
max_epochs=300,
factor=3,
directory='499',
project_name='949',
seed=123)
stop_early = tf.keras.callbacks.EarlyStopping(monitor='val_loss', patience=30)
tuner.search(train_generator, epochs=300, validation_data=val_generator, shuffle=True, callbacks=[stop_early], batch_size=len(train_generator))
best_hps=tuner.get_best_hyperparameters(num_trials=1)[0]
print(best_hps.get('units'))
print(best_hps.get('layers'))
print(best_hps.get('window'))
print(best_hps.get('learning_rate'))
best_hps=tuner.get_best_hyperparameters(num_trials=1)[0]
model = tuner.hypermodel.build(best_hps)
history = model.fit(img_train, label_train, epochs=50, validation_split=0.2)
val_acc_per_epoch = history.history['val_accuracy']
best_epoch = val_acc_per_epoch.index(max(val_acc_per_epoch)) + 1
print('Best epoch: %d' % (best_epoch,))
I'm running StatsModels to estimate parameters of a multiple regression model, using county-level data for 3085 counties. When I use statsmodels.formula.api, and drop a few rows from the data, I get desired results. All seems well enough.
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import statsmodels.formula.api as sm
%matplotlib inline
from statsmodels.compat import lzip
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
sns.set(style="whitegrid")
eg=pd.read_csv(r'C:/Users/user/anaconda3/une_edu_pipc_06.csv')
pd.options.display.precision = 3
plt.rc("figure", figsize=(16,8))
plt.rc("font", size=14)
sm_col = eg["lt_hsd_17"] + eg["hsd_17"]
eg["ut_hsd_17"] = sm_col
sm_col2 = eg["sm_col_17"] + eg["col_17"]
eg["bnd_hsd_17"] = sm_col2
eg["d_09"]= eg["Rate_09"]-eg["Rate_06"]
eg["d_10"]= eg["Rate_10"]-eg["Rate_06"]
inc_2=eg["p_c_inc_18"]*eg["p_c_inc_18"]
res = sm.ols(formula = "Rate_18 ~ p_c_inc_18 + ut_hsd_17 + d_10 + inc_2",
data=eg, missing='drop').fit()
print(res.summary()).
(BTW, eg["p_c_inc_18"]is per-capita income, and inc_2 is p_c_inc_18 squarred).
But when I wish to use import statsmodels.api as smas the module, everything else staying pretty much the same, and run the following code after all appropriate preliminaries,
inc_2=eg["p_c_inc_18"]*eg["p_c_inc_18"]
X = eg[["p_c_inc_18","ut_hsd_17","d_10","inc_2"]]
y = eg["Rate_18"]
X = sm.add_constant(X)
mod = sm.OLS(y, X)
res = mod.fit()
print(res.summary())
then things fall apart, and the Python interpreter throws an error, as follows:
[......]
KeyError: "['inc_2'] not in index"
BTW, the only difference between the two 'runs' is that 15 rows are dropped during the first, successful, model run, while I don't as yet know how to drop missing rows from the second model formulation. Could that difference be responsible for why the second run fails? (I chose to omit large parts of the error message, to reduce clutter.)
You need to assign inc_2 in your DataFrame.
inc_2=eg["p_c_inc_18"]*eg["p_c_inc_18"]
should be
eg["inc_2"] = eg["p_c_inc_18"]*eg["p_c_inc_18"]
I used transfer learning to train the model. The fundamental model was efficientNet.
You can read more about it here
from tensorflow import keras
from keras.models import Sequential,Model
from keras.layers import Dense,Dropout,Conv2D,MaxPooling2D,
Flatten,BatchNormalization, Activation
from keras.optimizers import RMSprop , Adam ,SGD
from keras.backend import sigmoid
Activation function
class SwishActivation(Activation):
def __init__(self, activation, **kwargs):
super(SwishActivation, self).__init__(activation, **kwargs)
self.__name__ = 'swish_act'
def swish_act(x, beta = 1):
return (x * sigmoid(beta * x))
from keras.utils.generic_utils import get_custom_objects
from keras.layers import Activation
get_custom_objects().update({'swish_act': SwishActivation(swish_act)})
Model Definition
model = enet.EfficientNetB0(include_top=False, input_shape=(150,50,3), pooling='avg', weights='imagenet')
Adding 2 fully-connected layers to B0.
x = model.output
x = BatchNormalization()(x)
x = Dropout(0.7)(x)
x = Dense(512)(x)
x = BatchNormalization()(x)
x = Activation(swish_act)(x)
x = Dropout(0.5)(x)
x = Dense(128)(x)
x = BatchNormalization()(x)
x = Activation(swish_act)(x)
x = Dense(64)(x)
x = Dense(32)(x)
x = Dense(16)(x)
# Output layer
predictions = Dense(1, activation="sigmoid")(x)
model_final = Model(inputs = model.input, outputs = predictions)
model_final.summary()
I saved it using:
model.save('model.h5')
I get the following error trying to load it:
model=tf.keras.models.load_model('model.h5')
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ValueError Traceback (most recent call last)
<ipython-input-12-e3bef1680e4f> in <module>()
1 # Recreate the exact same model, including its weights and the optimizer
----> 2 model = tf.keras.models.load_model('PhoneDetection-CNN_29_July.h5')
3
4 # Show the model architecture
5 model.summary()
10 frames
/usr/local/lib/python3.6/dist-packages/tensorflow/python/keras/utils/generic_utils.py in class_and_config_for_serialized_keras_object(config, module_objects, custom_objects, printable_module_name)
319 cls = get_registered_object(class_name, custom_objects, module_objects)
320 if cls is None:
--> 321 raise ValueError('Unknown ' + printable_module_name + ': ' + class_name)
322
323 cls_config = config['config']
ValueError: Unknown layer: FixedDropout
```python
I was getting the same error while trying to do the inference by loading my saved model.
Then i just imported the effiecientNet library in my inference notebook as well and the error was gone.
My import command looked like:
import efficientnet.keras as efn
(Note that if you havent installed effiecientNet already(which is unlikely), you can do so by using !pip install efficientnet command.)
I had this same issue with a recent model. Researching the source code you can find the FixedDropout Class. I added this to my inference code with import of backend and layers. The rate should also match the rate from your efficientnet model, so for the EfficientNetB0 the rate is .2 (others are different).
from tensorflow.keras import backend, layers
class FixedDropout(layers.Dropout):
def _get_noise_shape(self, inputs):
if self.noise_shape is None:
return self.noise_shape
symbolic_shape = backend.shape(inputs)
noise_shape = [symbolic_shape[axis] if shape is None else shape
for axis, shape in enumerate(self.noise_shape)]
return tuple(noise_shape)
model = keras.models.load_model('model.h5',
custom_objects={'FixedDropout':FixedDropout(rate=0.2)})
I was getting the same error. Then I import the below code. then it id working properly
import cv2
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import tensorflow as tf
from sklearn.metrics import confusion_matrix
import itertools
import os, glob
from tqdm import tqdm
from efficientnet.tfkeras import EfficientNetB4
if you don't have to install this. !pip install efficientnet. If you have any problem put here.
In my case, I had two files train.py and test.py.
I was saving my .h5 model inside train.py and was attempting to load it inside test.py and got the same error. To fix it, you need to add the import statements for your efficientnet models inside the file that is attempting to load it as well (in my case, test.py).
from efficientnet.tfkeras import EfficientNetB0
After some research, I was able to predict the future value using the LSTM code below. I have also attached the Dmd1ahr.csv file in the github link that I am using.
https://github.com/ukeshchawal/hello-world/blob/master/Dmd1ahr.csv
As you all can see below, 90 data points are training sets and 91st to 100th are future value prediction.
However some of the questions that I still have are:
In order to predict these values I had to originally take more than hundred data sets (here, I have taken 500 data sets) which is not exactly what my primary goal is. Is there a way that given 500 data sets, it will predict the rest 10 or 20 out of sample data points? If yes, will you please write me a sample code where you can just take 500 data points from Dmd1ahr.csv file attached below and it will predict some future values (say 501 to 520) based on those 500 points?
The prediction are way off compared to the one who have in your blogs (definitely indicates for parameter tuning - I tried changing epochs, LSTM layers, Activation, optimizer). What other parameter tuning I can do to make it more robust?
Thank you'll in advance.
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import pandas
# By twaking the architecture it could be made more robust
np.random.seed(7)
numOfSamples = 500
lengthTrain = 90
lengthValidation = 100
look_back = 1 # Can be set higher, in my experiments it made performance worse though
transientTime = 90 # Time to "burn in" time series
series = pandas.read_csv('Dmd1ahr.csv')
def generateTrainData(series, i, look_back):
return series[i:look_back+i+1]
trainX = np.stack([generateTrainData(series, i, look_back) for i in range(lengthTrain)])
testX = np.stack([generateTrainData(series, lengthTrain + i, look_back) for i in range(lengthValidation)])
trainX = trainX.reshape((lengthTrain,look_back+1,1))
testX = testX.reshape((lengthValidation, look_back + 1, 1))
trainY = trainX[:,1:,:]
trainX = trainX[:,:-1,:]
testY = testX[:,1:,:]
testX = testX[:,:-1,:]
############### Build Model ###############
import keras
from keras.models import Model
from keras import layers
from keras import regularizers
inputs = layers.Input(batch_shape=(1,look_back,1), name="main_input")
inputsAux = layers.Input(batch_shape=(1,look_back,1), name="aux_input")
# this layer makes the actual prediction, i.e. decides if and how much it goes up or down
x = layers.recurrent.LSTM(300,return_sequences=True, stateful=True)(inputs)
x = layers.recurrent.LSTM(200,return_sequences=True, stateful=True)(inputs)
x = layers.recurrent.LSTM(100,return_sequences=True, stateful=True)(inputs)
x = layers.recurrent.LSTM(50,return_sequences=True, stateful=True)(inputs)
x = layers.wrappers.TimeDistributed(layers.Dense(1, activation="linear",
kernel_regularizer=regularizers.l2(0.005),
activity_regularizer=regularizers.l1(0.005)))(x)
# auxillary input, the current input will be feed directly to the output
# this way the prediction from the step before will be used as a "base", and the Network just have to
# learn if it goes a little up or down
auxX = layers.wrappers.TimeDistributed(layers.Dense(1,
kernel_initializer=keras.initializers.Constant(value=1),
bias_initializer='zeros',
input_shape=(1,1), activation="linear", trainable=False
))(inputsAux)
outputs = layers.add([x, auxX], name="main_output")
model = Model(inputs=[inputs, inputsAux], outputs=outputs)
model.compile(optimizer='adam',
loss='mean_squared_error',
metrics=['mean_squared_error'])
#model.summary()
#model.fit({"main_input": trainX, "aux_input": trainX[look_back-1,look_back,:]},{"main_output": trainY}, epochs=4, batch_size=1, shuffle=False)
model.fit({"main_input": trainX, "aux_input": trainX[:,look_back-1,:].reshape(lengthTrain,1,1)},{"main_output": trainY}, epochs=100, batch_size=1, shuffle=False)
############### make predictions ###############
burnedInPredictions = np.zeros(transientTime)
testPredictions = np.zeros(len(testX))
# burn series in, here use first transitionTime number of samples from test data
for i in range(transientTime):
prediction = model.predict([np.array(testX[i, :, 0].reshape(1, look_back, 1)), np.array(testX[i, look_back - 1, 0].reshape(1, 1, 1))])
testPredictions[i] = prediction[0,0,0]
burnedInPredictions[:] = testPredictions[:transientTime]
# prediction, now dont use any previous data whatsoever anymore, network just has to run on its own output
for i in range(transientTime, len(testX)):
prediction = model.predict([prediction, prediction])
testPredictions[i] = prediction[0,0,0]
# for plotting reasons
testPredictions[:np.size(burnedInPredictions)-1] = np.nan
############### plot results ###############
#import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
plt.plot(testX[:, 0, 0])
plt.show()
plt.plot(burnedInPredictions, label = "training")
plt.plot(testPredictions, label = "prediction")
plt.legend()
plt.show()
I'm trying to sample multiple chains in PyMC3. In PyMC2 I would do something like this:
for i in range(N):
model.sample(iter=iter, burn=burn, thin = thin)
How should I do the same thing in PyMC3? I saw there is a 'njobs' argument in the 'sample' method, but it throws an error when I set a value for it. I want to use sampled chains to get 'pymc.gelman_rubin' output.
Better is to use njobs to run chains in parallel:
#!/usr/bin/env python3
import pymc3 as pm
import numpy as np
from pymc3.backends.base import merge_traces
xobs = 4 + np.random.randn(20)
model = pm.Model()
with model:
mu = pm.Normal('mu', mu=0, sd=20)
x = pm.Normal('x', mu=mu, sd=1., observed=xobs)
step = pm.NUTS()
with model:
trace = pm.sample(1000, step, njobs=2)
To run them serially, you can use a similar approach to your PyMC 2
example. The main difference is that each call to sample returns a
multi-chain trace instance (containing just a single chain in this
case). merge_traces will take a list of multi-chain instances and
create a single instance with all the chains.
#!/usr/bin/env python3
import pymc as pm
import numpy as np
from pymc.backends.base import merge_traces
xobs = 4 + np.random.randn(20)
model = pm.Model()
with model:
mu = pm.Normal('mu', mu=0, sd=20)
x = pm.Normal('x', mu=mu, sd=1., observed=xobs)
step = pm.NUTS()
with model:
trace = merge_traces([pm.sample(1000, step, chain=i)
for i in range(2)])