Faster way to compute distributions from Markov chain? - performance

Question

Suppose that I have a probability transition matrix, say a matrix of dimensions 2000x2000, that represents a homogeneous Markov chain, and I want to get some statistics of each probability distribution of the first 200 steps of the chain (the distribution of the first row at each step), then I've written the following
using Distributions, LinearAlgebra
# This function defines our transition matrix:
function tm(N::Int, n0::Int)
[pdf(Hypergeometric(N-l,l,n0),k-l) for l in 0:N, k in 0:N]
end
# This computes the 5-percentile of a probability vector
function percentile5(M::Vector)
s=0
i=0
while s <= 0.05
i += 1
s += M[i]
end
return i-1
end
# This function compute a matrix with three rows: means, 5-percentiles
# and standard deviations. Each column represent a session.
function stats(N::Int, n0::Int, m::Int)
A = tm(N,n0)
B = I # Initilizing B with the identity matrix
sup = 0:N # The support of each distribution
sup2 = [k^2 for k in sup]
stats = zeros(3,m)
for i in 1:m
C = B[1,:]
stats[1,i] = sum(C .* sup) # Mean
stats[2,i] = percentile5(C) # 5-percentile
stats[3,i] = sqrt(sum(C .* sup2) - stats[1,i]^2) # Standard deviation
B = A*B
end
return stats
end
data = stats(2000,50,200)
My question is, there is a more efficient (faster) way to do the same computation? I don't see a better way to do it but maybe there are some tricks that speed-up this computation.

Answer 1

This is what I have running so far:
using Distributions, LinearAlgebra, SparseArrays
# This function defines our transition matrix:
function tm(N::Int, n0::Int)
[pdf(Hypergeometric(N-l,l,n0),k-l) for l in 0:N, k in 0:N]
end
# This computes the 5-percentile of a probability vector
function percentile5(M::AbstractVector)
s = zero(eltype(M))
res = length(M)
#inbounds for i = 1:length(M)
s += M[i]
if s > 0.05
res = i - 1
break
end
end
return res
end
# This function compute a matrix with three rows: means, 5-percentiles
# and standard deviations. Each column represent a session.
function stats(N::Int, n0::Int, m::Int)
A = sparse(transpose(tm(N, n0)))
C = zeros(size(A, 1))
C[1] = 1.0
sup = 0:N # The support of each distribution
sup2 = sup .^ 2
stats = zeros(3, m)
for i = 1:m
stats[1, i] = sum(C .* sup) # Mean
stats[2, i] = percentile5(C) # 5-percentile
stats[3, i] = sqrt(sum(C .* sup2) - stats[1, i]^2) # Standard deviation
C = A * C
end
return stats
end
It is around 4x faster (on smaller parameters - possibly much more speedup on large parameters). Basically uses the tips I've made in the comment:
using sparse arrays.
avoiding whole matrix multiply but using vector-matrix multiply instead.
Further improvement are possible (like simulation/ensemble method I've mentioned).